Spot gold and silver prices rose during the U.S. afternoon session on Thursday, supported by lower crude oil prices, falling U.S. Treasury yields, and a weaker U.S. dollar following the Fed meeting minutes.

At the time of writing, spot gold was trading around $4,120.80 per ounce, up 1.13%. Spot silver was near $59.95 per ounce, rising sharply by 2.82% for the session.

Gold Moves Back Above $4,100

During the session, gold traded between $4,053.60 and $4,134.90 per ounce, helping the metal move back above the key psychological level of $4,100.

However, gold remains below the important resistance zone of $4,162 - $4,214 per ounce, which has recently capped its recovery attempts.

Silver also rebounded strongly after the previous session’s decline, trading between $57.47 and $60.62 per ounce. Although silver has recovered toward the $60 area, it has not yet broken clearly above the $61 - $62 resistance zone.

Jobs Data and Fed Signals Remain Mixed

The June jobs report showed that the U.S. economy added 57,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. Employment figures for April and May were also revised lower by a combined 74,000 jobs.

These figures initially supported gold, as they reduced expectations that the Fed would quickly move ahead with another rate hike. However, the Fed meeting minutes showed that some officials remain concerned about inflation and have not ruled out the possibility of a rate hike in September.

This means the monetary policy outlook remains unclear.

Lower Yields and Weaker Dollar Support Precious Metals

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to around 4.53%, after reaching a seven-week high near 4.60% in the previous session. The 2-year yield also declined to around 4.16%.

At the same time, the U.S. Dollar Index slipped below 101.00, trading around 100.80. A weaker dollar and lower bond yields created a more supportive environment for gold and silver.

Lower Oil Prices Ease Inflation Pressure

The situation around the Strait of Hormuz remains risky, but there is currently no confirmed full closure of the key shipping route. Maritime traffic continues, although military and shipping risks remain elevated.

Brent crude fell to around $75.50 per barrel, while WTI traded near $71 per barrel. Lower oil prices helped ease inflation concerns, reducing pressure on yields and the U.S. dollar while supporting precious metals.

For gold, this is a positive shift, as lower oil prices reduce the inflation pressure that previously pushed yields and the dollar higher.

Technical Outlook

For spot gold, the nearest resistance zone to watch is $4,162 - $4,214 per ounce. If price breaks above this area, the next upside target could be the 50-day moving average near $4,362 per ounce.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at $4,072 and $4,041. If these levels are broken, selling pressure could return, with deeper downside targets around $3,942 and $3,886.

For silver, near-term resistance is seen around $59.44 and $63.28. Key support levels to watch are $58.53 and $55.60.

Conclusion

Gold and silver are recovering thanks to a combination of lower oil prices, easing U.S. Treasury yields, and a weaker U.S. dollar. However, the rally has not yet been fully confirmed, as gold remains below the $4,162 - $4,214 resistance zone, while silver has not yet broken clearly above the $61 - $62 area.

Source: Kitco