Gold ended July with its first monthly gain since the U.S.-Iran conflict began. However, describing the month as a major breakout would be misleading. July was primarily a period of consolidation and base-building.

At the end of the month, the actively traded December gold contract was trading around $4,107.60, down $55, or 1.32%, on the day. After accounting for that decline, gold gained only about $16 during July.

The Monthly Doji Reflects Market Indecision

July’s monthly candle formed an almost perfect doji, with the opening and closing prices nearly identical.

A doji does not confirm either an upward or downward trend. Instead, it reflects a balance of power between buyers and sellers. In the current context, however, that indecision is still meaningful.

The most positive development was the formation of gold’s first higher monthly low since April. This low also closely aligned with the lows recorded in June and October 2025, showing that sellers repeatedly failed to break below the same broad support area.

This may indicate that gold is building a price floor, although it is not yet enough to confirm a new upward trend.

Gold Closes Above Its Downtrend Line for the First Time in Five Months

A more important signal appeared on the daily chart.

For roughly five months, gold had been trapped within a descending triangle and repeatedly rejected at a falling resistance trendline.

The latest session recorded the first daily close above that trendline in five months. This is a meaningful technical development because it suggests that selling pressure around the resistance area may be weakening.

A Successful Retest Is Still Needed

Even so, a close above the trendline is only the first step, not a complete confirmation.

The market now needs to retest the former resistance line from above. If that level holds and turns into support, the technical case for a more significant gold rally would strengthen considerably.

Conversely, a quick move back below the trendline could indicate a false breakout.

Conclusion

July was not an explosive month for gold. The more important developments were:

• The formation of a higher monthly low

• The first daily close above the descending trendline in five months

The conditions for a new upward trend are beginning to emerge, but the market still needs a successful retest to confirm that former resistance has genuinely become support.

Source: Kitco