Global gold soared over 12%, while Vietnam’s domestic gold price rose only about half. Why the gap, and what should investors watch out for?

The big picture: global gold surges, domestic gold lags

September 2025 witnessed a powerful rally in the global gold market. International prices repeatedly broke records, surpassing $3,800/ounce, up 12% in just one month. This marked the strongest monthly increase in years, driven by demand for safe-haven assets amid global economic and geopolitical uncertainty, alongside expectations of looser U.S. Federal Reserve policy.

Meanwhile, in Vietnam, gold also climbed but more modestly. SJC gold bars rose around 5.1%, while gold rings increased roughly 6.7%. In other words, domestic gold prices rose by only half the rate of international gold.

This raises a key question: why is Vietnam’s market moving out of sync with the global surge?

Why Vietnam’s gold price rose more slowly

Import restrictions and market controls

Vietnam’s gold market remains heavily regulated by the government. The State Bank has long maintained a monopoly on imports, limiting supply flexibility and preventing domestic prices from mirroring global trends in real time.

Though reforms are under discussion such as allowing more banks and enterprises to import and trade gold these changes have yet to take effect. For now, supply remains constrained.

Cost structure and pricing gap

When converting global prices into VND, extra costs pile on: import duties, processing fees, quality certification, transport, and insurance. These factors form a “price cushion,” meaning domestic prices often lag global movements

Local demand and investor psychology

In Vietnam, gold is not only a safe-haven asset but also a traditional savings tool. However, during sharp price rises, many investors take profits instead of buying more, tempering demand.

Furthermore, the buy–sell spread in Vietnam is wide, sometimes several million VND per tael. Wide spreads discourage aggressive buying even when global gold is rallying.

USD/VND exchange rate dynamics

The Vietnamese dong has depreciated about 3–4% against the U.S. dollar in 2025. Normally, this would push domestic gold higher. But because the State Bank tightly manages the FX market, the effect has not fully flowed through to gold prices.

Regulatory risks and market structure

Another factor is uncertainty over regulatory changes. As the government considers new decrees to reform gold trading and close the price gap with global markets, many investors have chosen to wait rather than chase short-term rallies

Implications: opportunity or risk for domestic investors?

The risk of “overpaying”

When domestic gold lags global prices, it might seem safer. But in reality, investors may still “overpay” if the price gap widens. Buying locally at a higher base than the global equivalent exposes investors to losses if world prices reverse.

Wide spreads and liquidity risks

The wider buy–sell spread in Vietnam means higher transaction costs. Buying gold today and selling tomorrow could cost millions of VND per tael in losses — a hidden risk many casual investors overlook.

Policy shocks

If the State Bank moves aggressively to regulate imports, establish a national gold exchange, or curb speculation, prices could adjust sharply. Investors who bought at inflated domestic levels might be caught off guard.

What should investors do now?

Track gold policy reforms
Government announcements on import licensing, trading permissions, and a national exchange will directly affect domestic prices.

Compare domestic vs. global prices
Always convert international gold into VND (using current USD/VND rates) to see how much extra you’re paying.

Adjust profit expectations
Don’t expect domestic bars to match global gains one-to-one. Think of gold primarily as a store of value, not a quick-profit tool.

Diversify your portfolio
Instead of going all-in on gold, balance holdings with USD, defensive equities, or other assets less distorted by local–global mismatches.

Vietnam’s gold price rising only half as much as the global surge is no coincidence. It reflects multiple forces: regulatory limits, cost structures, investor behavior, FX dynamics, and policy uncertainty.

For investors, the key takeaway is not to chase raw percentage gains, but to understand the unique domestic context and manage risks tied to pricing gaps. Gold remains an important hedge, but in Vietnam it functions more as a safe harbor than a fast-profit vehicle.