Gold prices went through a highly volatile week as safe-haven demand from geopolitical risks continued to clash with a stronger U.S. dollar, rising Treasury yields, and concerns that the Federal Reserve may maintain a hawkish stance for longer due to persistent inflation pressures.

Spot gold opened the week at around $4,539.09 per ounce, then climbed to a weekly high of $4,588.64 per ounce as uncertainty surrounding the Iran conflict and defensive market sentiment supported demand for the precious metal. However, the rally failed to hold as gold struggled near the key resistance zone around $4,600 per ounce.

Pressure from the U.S. Dollar, Yields, and the Fed

After reaching its weekly high, gold reversed sharply during Tuesday’s North American session. A stronger U.S. dollar, rising Treasury yields, and renewed inflation concerns caused traders to reassess the outlook for interest rates.

Selling pressure pushed gold below the $4,500 per ounce level before prices fell to a weekly low of $4,453.00 per ounce on Wednesday, ahead of the release of the April FOMC minutes.

The minutes showed that Fed officials remained concerned about inflation risks, particularly those linked to energy prices and tariffs. This limited gold’s ability to sustain a strong rebound, as higher interest rates tend to reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold.

The $4,500 Level Remains in Focus

Although gold managed to recover above $4,500 per ounce, it has not yet shown enough strength to confirm a new bullish trend. According to Marc Chandler of Bannockburn Global Forex, gold would need to move above the $4,600 per ounce area to prove stronger upside momentum.

On the downside, risk could extend toward the 200-day moving average, currently around $4,370 per ounce. Some analysts also believe the $4,370–$4,400 per ounce range could become an important support zone if selling pressure continues.

Wall Street Turns Bearish While Main Street Stays Bullish

The latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey showed that Wall Street analysts remain bearish on gold’s short-term outlook.

Among 13 analysts surveyed:

• 15% expected gold prices to rise in the coming week

• 62% expected prices to decline

• 23% expected prices to move sideways

Meanwhile, Main Street investors remained more optimistic. Out of 32 online poll votes:

• 56% expected gold prices to rise

• 22% expected prices to fall

• 22% expected prices to trade sideways

This contrast shows that the market still lacks a clear consensus. In simple terms, analysts remain cautious, while retail investors are still holding on to a bullish view.

Key Factors to Watch Next Week

Next week will be a shortened trading week due to the Memorial Day holiday, but markets will still focus on several important U.S. economic data releases, including:

• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index

• Preliminary Q1 GDP

• PCE inflation data

• Weekly jobless claims

• April Durable Goods Orders

• New Home Sales

These indicators could directly affect expectations for the Fed’s interest rate path, which in turn may influence the U.S. dollar, Treasury yields, and gold prices.

Short-Term Outlook

In the short term, gold is likely to continue trading around the $4,500 per ounce level. If prices fail to break above the $4,560–$4,600 per ounce zone, selling pressure may remain dominant. On the other hand, if gold breaks below the nearby support area around $4,470 per ounce, the market could move toward the $4,370–$4,400 per ounce range.

Overall, gold remains caught between two opposing forces: geopolitical risks continue to support safe-haven demand, while a stronger U.S. dollar, higher yields, and concerns over a hawkish Fed continue to weigh on prices. Under current conditions, gold may remain volatile, but a clear directional trend has yet to emerge.

Source: Kitco