The Vietnamese stock market kicked off the week with remarkable momentum. On October 6 2025, the VN-Index jumped 49.68 points (+3.02%), closing at 1,695.50 points — its strongest one-day gain in weeks.

This surge reflected not only abundant liquidity but also investor excitement ahead of the highly anticipated FTSE Russell market-classification review, scheduled for October 8 (Vietnam time).

Highlights of the session included:

• 259 gainers, with 22 stocks hitting the ceiling, while only 68 declined.

• The VN30 Index rose across the board, with 29 of 30 constituents in green.

• Total trading value across all exchanges exceeded 35 trillion VND, with over 1.22 billion shares changing hands a strong rebound in liquidity.

• Despite the rally, foreign investors net-sold ~1.9 trillion VND, signaling lingering caution.

Clearly, the October 6 session was powered by local buying enthusiasm and optimistic expectations ahead of a potentially historic upgrade.

Key Drivers Behind the Rally

Market-Upgrade Speculation

The biggest catalyst was anticipation that FTSE Russell might upgrade Vietnam from a Frontier Market to a Secondary Emerging Market.

In recent years, regulators and market operators have made significant progress enhancing transparency, improving corporate governance, and upgrading trading infrastructure. Such reforms have reignited investor hopes that Vietnam could soon join the emerging-market ranks, attracting large passive inflows from global funds.

As a result, domestic investors rushed to “buy the rumor” positioning early for a possible re-rating of Vietnamese equities.

Strong Momentum from Brokerage and Banking Stocks

• Brokerages were the center of attention, with major firms like SSI, VND, VIX, ORS, CTS, HCM, SHS hitting the ceiling price.

• Banks also joined the rally VPB, ACB, TPB, CTG, VCB all gained 3–7%, with VPB closing at the upper limit.

• Real estate and mid-cap stocks such as VRE, DIG, PDR, NVL, KDH also advanced 4–7%.

The broad-based participation helped the rally sustain its strength throughout the day.

Technical and Sentiment-Based Factors

From the opening bell, the VN-Index gapped up 20 points, setting a positive tone for the entire session. Market breadth was exceptionally wide hundreds of gainers outnumbering losers by large margins.

As domestic liquidity poured in, supply dried up, leading to “no-offer” conditions in many tickers.
In essence, the market’s rally was a product of strong sentiment + technical momentum + herd optimism a potent mix for a bullish day.

Risks and Hidden Traps Behind the Euphoria

While the rally was spectacular, prudent investors should not ignore key warning signs:

Persistent Foreign Selling
Foreign investors continued to sell roughly 1.9 trillion VND, suggesting that global institutions remain unconvinced by the short-term optimism. Sustained outflows could cap further upside.

Overbought Conditions & Technical Correction Risk
After such a sharp one-day spike, short-term corrections are highly possible as traders take profits. Several tickers hit their ceiling limits — when momentum cools, reversals can be swift.

Potential Disappointment in Upgrade Results
If FTSE Russell decides not to upgrade Vietnam, speculative money could exit rapidly, triggering a pullback.
Investors should evaluate fundamentals rather than rely solely on the “upgrade narrative.”

Emerging Sector Rotation
As the rally matures, capital could rotate from speculative plays (brokerage / banking) toward fundamentally stronger stocks, leaving weaker ones behind.

External Macroeconomic Uncertainty
Global interest-rate trends, exchange-rate volatility, and geopolitical factors could all influence Vietnam’s market in unpredictable ways.

Market Outlook & Strategy Recommendations

Looking ahead, the VN-Index may test the 1,710–1,720 resistance zone if momentum remains intact.
However, short-term volatility and profit-taking are likely before any sustained breakout.

Strategic suggestions for investors:

• ? Take partial profits on stocks that have risen sharply to lock in gains.

• ? Keep cash reserves ready to buy quality stocks during pullbacks.

• ? Prioritize fundamentals: focus on companies with strong earnings, transparent governance, and resilient industries.

• ? Monitor global flows and monetary policy: foreign-fund behavior and U.S. interest-rate movements will shape near-term sentiment.

• ? Avoid chasing prices: entering too late in an overheated market increases downside risk.

If the upgrade materializes, it could usher in a new wave of institutional capital. But if not, investors should brace for short-term volatility and stay disciplined.

The October 6 rally with VN-Index up nearly 50 points and liquidity surging beyond 35 trillion VND marks one of the strongest trading sessions of 2025. It underscores how domestic optimism and reform expectations can still drive Vietnam’s capital market forward.

Yet, true sustainability will depend on foreign-capital participation, corporate fundamentals, and continued policy stability.

Investors who balance excitement with prudence — enjoying the ride but keeping a hand on the brake will be best positioned to navigate whatever comes next.