Unexpected Surge After the Holiday

Right after Vietnam’s National Day holiday (September 2), the domestic gold market witnessed one of its most striking movements in months. The selling price of SJC gold bars skyrocketed to VND 133.4 million per tael, with some retailers even pushing it up to VND 134 million per tael within the first two hours of trading on September 3. Such a sharp and sudden increase reflects not only strong investor demand but also heightened sensitivity of the market to both domestic and international developments.

Major Retailers Adjust Prices in Sync

In the southern market, Ngoc Tham quickly made two consecutive adjustments, bringing the buying price to VND 131.8 million and the selling price to VND 134 million per tael, making it one of the most aggressive movers of the day. At the same time, major retailers including SJC, DOJI, PNJ, and Bao Tin Minh Chau moved in lockstep, posting buying prices of VND 131.9 million and selling prices of VND 133.4 million per tael, and keeping those levels steady until mid-morning. Compared with the last trading session before the holiday (August 30), most brands saw prices surge by around VND 2.8 million per tael, underscoring a synchronized upward trend across the market.

A Six-Session Winning Streak

This rally is not an isolated spike but part of a sustained pattern. Since August 26, SJC gold has been on a six-session winning streak, with buying prices rising by a total of VND 6.3 million per tael and selling prices climbing VND 5.8 million per tael. For many analysts, such consistency signals a fundamental shift in investor sentiment, as gold continues to cement its role as a hedge against uncertainty. The surge also mirrors broader concerns over inflationary pressures, fluctuating exchange rates, and global economic slowdowns that have pushed Vietnamese investors toward safer assets.

Gold Jewelry Also Heating Up

The surge was not confined to gold bars. Gold jewelry prices also climbed dramatically. PNJ quoted early-session prices at VND 125.5 – 128.5 million per tael, marking an increase of VND 3 – 3.1 million compared with the pre-holiday session. DOJI led the rally with prices of VND 125.8 – 128.8 million, representing a hefty VND 3.3 million per tael increase in both buying and selling prices. Other brands such as SJC, Phu Quy, Bao Tin Minh Chau, and Bao Tin Manh Hai raised their prices by VND 2.6 to over 3 million per tael, reinforcing the breadth of the upward move. In Ho Chi Minh City, Ngoc Tham raised its jewelry prices three times within just an hour, pushing quotes to VND 115.8 – 118 million per tael. This widespread surge indicates that demand is not just speculative but also spread across retail consumption.

Global Context and Price Gap

Globally, spot gold prices in New York moved only slightly, edging down 0.03% to around $3,534 per ounce. This divergence between stable global prices and soaring domestic prices highlights a structural feature of Vietnam’s gold market. Based on Vietcombank’s exchange rate (including taxes and fees), domestic prices are currently trading at a significant premium:

• SJC gold bars: about VND 19.3 million per tael higher than international prices

• Gold jewelry: about VND 13.5 – 14.6 million per tael higher
  Interestingly, at Ngoc Tham, the gap was far narrower at just VND 3.9 million per tael, suggesting competitive dynamics among retailers are also shaping the pricing landscape.

What Drives the Surge?

Analysts suggest that several factors are contributing to this rally. First, domestic investors are increasingly turning to gold as a hedge against potential volatility in currency markets, particularly the Vietnamese dong. Second, global geopolitical uncertainties and concerns about inflation are keeping demand for safe-haven assets strong worldwide, indirectly fueling domestic prices. Finally, limited supply and structural constraints in Vietnam’s gold market—such as import restrictions and tight regulation—often cause local prices to diverge sharply from global benchmarks.

The dramatic rise of SJC gold prices within just two hours underlines the volatility and complexity of Vietnam’s gold market. On one hand, the sustained rally presents opportunities for investors who entered the market earlier, as gold continues to demonstrate its resilience as a store of value. On the other hand, the wide domestic-international price gap of up to nearly VND 20 million per tael raises cautionary flags. Investors may face risks of sharp corrections if global prices stabilize or domestic demand cools. In the short term, gold remains a reliable safe haven, but in the long run, investors will need to balance opportunities with the inherent risks of such rapid price movements.

(Source: vneconomy)