Market Context

Spot gold weakened after the North American cash-market close on Tuesday, while spot silver maintained a firmer tone. The main driver came from stronger-than-expected U.S. labor-market data, which pushed Treasury yields higher and kept the risk of further Federal Reserve rate hikes at the center of the precious-metals market.

At the time of writing, spot gold was trading around $4,006.70 per ounce, down 0.22%. Meanwhile, spot silver was trading near $58.47 per ounce, up 0.50% on the session.

Gold Remains Pressured Below Key Resistance

Gold’s New York spot range was between $3,944 and $4,064.10 per ounce. This shows that the metal is still holding above last week’s sub-$4,000 support test, but it has not yet gained enough strength to confirm a clear recovery.

The main pressure on gold comes from rising U.S. Treasury yields. After the JOLTS report showed U.S. job openings rising to 7.594 million in May, above expectations of 7.3 million, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to around 4.469%. When yields rise, gold often becomes less attractive because it does not generate fixed income.

Silver Holds a Stronger Tone Than Gold

In contrast to gold, silver maintained stronger momentum during the session. Silver’s New York spot range stood between $56.53 and $60.55 per ounce.

Silver was supported by a lower gold-silver ratio and stronger relative momentum. This suggests that, in the short term, silver is reacting more positively than gold, although the broader precious-metals market remains heavily influenced by Fed rate expectations.

The Fed Remains the Main Constraint

The post-Fed reaction remains the biggest factor limiting the rebound in precious metals. At its June 17 meeting, the FOMC kept the target rate range unchanged at 3.50% - 3.75%, with a unanimous 12-0 vote.

However, the latest projections suggest that the Fed may keep policy tight for longer. The median 2026 federal funds rate forecast was raised to 3.8%, up from 3.4% in March. At the same time, the 2026 PCE inflation forecast was lifted to 3.6%, from 2.7% previously.

These factors have led markets to continue pricing in the possibility of elevated interest rates, putting pressure on gold and limiting silver’s upside.

Hormuz Risks Ease, but Have Not Disappeared

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz can currently be described as recovering flows with unstable political risk. Oil shipments through the strait have moved closer to prewar levels in tanker terms, but Iran still holds influence over routing, inspections, and traffic management following the U.S.-Iran ceasefire framework.

Oil prices reflected this split: WTI traded lower near $70.03 per barrel, while Brent remained near $73.45 per barrel. Crude prices have fallen from the panic highs seen in June, but they remain sensitive to any new tanker incident or breakdown in negotiations.

For gold, this means the safe-haven bid is smaller than it was earlier in the month. However, the oil channel remains important because any renewed supply shock could feed directly into inflation expectations and affect Fed policy outlooks.

Gold Technical Analysis

For spot gold, bulls need to push price back above the $4,063 - $4,096 per ounce resistance zone to improve the short-term structure. If price breaks sustainably above this area, the next upside targets could be $4,107 and $4,201 per ounce.

On the downside, the nearest support levels to watch are $3,959 and $3,927 per ounce. If gold breaks below $3,959, selling pressure could extend toward $3,927, and then deeper toward $3,886 per ounce.

Silver Technical Analysis

For spot silver, bulls need to drive price back above the $61 - $62 per ounce area to confirm stronger upside momentum. If silver breaks above this zone, the next targets could be $65 and $66 per ounce.

On the downside, the key support zone stands around $56 - $57 per ounce. If this area is broken, silver could continue to correct toward $55, followed by $54 per ounce.

Conclusion

The precious-metals market is showing clear divergence: gold remains under pressure as U.S. Treasury yields rise and Fed risks continue to weigh on sentiment, while silver is holding a stronger tone thanks to better relative momentum.

In the short term, the direction of gold and silver will depend heavily on U.S. Treasury yields, labor-market data, Fed policy signals, and geopolitical developments around the Strait of Hormuz.

Gold needs to reclaim the $4,063 - $4,096 per ounce resistance zone to confirm a clearer recovery. Meanwhile, silver needs to break above the $61 - $62 per ounce area to extend its upside move.

Source: Reuters