Iran remains a major supply-risk flashpoint

Iran one of OPEC’s largest oil producers is facing the most serious wave of anti-government protests in years. According to domestic sources, the authorities’ crackdown has left around 2,000 people dead and thousands more arrested.

The developments quickly prompted a tougher response from the United States. President Donald Trump warned of possible military action and announced a 25% tariff on all trade with the U.S. for countries that continue to purchase Iranian oil.

This move has immediately reignited fears of a severe disruption to global oil supply especially as China is currently the largest buyer of Iranian crude.

“If countries truly avoid buying Iranian oil, global supply could fall by roughly 3.3 million barrels per day a figure large enough to shift the market balance,”
said Bob Yawger, an energy specialist at Mizuho Securities.

Following Trump’s hardline statements on social media, oil prices briefly jumped more than 3%, hitting a three-month high showing just how sensitive the market is to geopolitical risks.

Russia’s “shadow fleet” comes under intensified scrutiny

Beyond Iran, another factor quietly tightening supply is the growing crackdown on Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet” of oil tankers.

According to Reuters, four Greek-managed tankers were attacked by drones while transiting the Black Sea en route to load crude at a port operated by the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC).

Earlier, the U.S. also seized the tanker Marirena believed to be part of a network used to move Russian oil while evading sanctions in international waters. This sequence of actions has significantly increased the risk surrounding Russia’s crude flows, which remain an important source of supply for the global market.

Together, these developments suggest that oil supply risks are becoming systemic, rather than isolated shocks.

Technical outlook: A new medium-term upcycle has been triggered

From a technical perspective, recent price action is strongly reinforcing a medium-term bullish scenario.

After forming a clear bottom around the key support zone near $55 per barrel, WTI has decisively broken the structure of the previous downtrend, confirming a shift in trend phase.

Medium-term wave structure

Oil is moving within an upward wave from red B to red C.
This is a directional advance, typically accompanied by large price swings and an extended duration.

Short-term wave structure (D1)

On the D1 timeframe, WTI crude is rising within the “Million-Dollar Model #1,” forming a five-wave (yellow) structure: t1 – l1 – t2 – l2 – t3.

At present, the market is in the primary impulsive leg from l1 to t2, which explains why oil has climbed for several consecutive sessions with an expanding daily range an archetypal characteristic of a driving/impulse wave.

Technical targets & extension scenarios

• Near-term target: $65 → $69 per barrel

• Medium-term target: $75–$80 per barrel

If tensions in Iran and the broader Middle East continue to escalate combined with rising transportation risks tied to Russian oil flows—then keeping prices anchored above $80 per barrel in 2026 is entirely plausible, both technically and fundamentally.

A clear uptrend is taking shape

The current rally in oil is not merely a short-lived reaction to geopolitical headlines. It is increasingly reflecting a meaningful shift in overall market structure. As supply risks build simultaneously across multiple key regions and as the technical structure confirms a new upcycle oil is entering a more favorable medium-term phase.

In the short run, technical pullbacks may occur. But as long as price remains above the established base, the bullish trend remains the dominant scenario. In today’s environment, oil is becoming one of the assets most sensitive to geopolitics and also a place where both speculative and hedging flows are converging strongly.

My team at Ebila AI continues to track market developments closely, integrating both fundamental and technical factors to help investors form a more comprehensive view and make more effective decisions.

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