After more than 13 years under a state monopoly regime, as of October 10, 2025, Decree 232/2025/ND-CP officially takes effect, eliminating the state’s exclusive role in gold bar production. From this date forward, commercial banks and qualified enterprises may be granted licenses to produce, import, and export gold input materials for crafting gold bars. This decision has attracted keen attention from the business community, investors, and media as a structural shift in Vietnam’s domestic gold market.

What exactly does Decree 232 permit? What are its short- and long-term impacts? Who gains, and who bears pressures? In this post, we provide a comprehensive analysis so you can see the full picture — and help you, as an investor, enterprise, or gold consumer, to map your strategy.

Key Provisions of Decree 232/2025

Abolishing the monopoly — shifting to a licensing regime

One pillar is that Decree 232 repeals Clause 3, Article 4 of Decree 24/2012 — removing the state monopoly on gold bar production. Under the new approach, gold bar production becomes a conditional business, with the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) responsible for licensing, supervision, and market coordination.

Under this new regime, commercial banks and enterprises satisfying capital, technical capability, transparency, and risk control standards will be eligible to participate in importing, producing, and exporting gold raw materials and crafting gold bars.

Strict licensing requirements

To ensure that gold bar production remains under control and accountable, the decree adds explicit conditions:

• Applicants must hold a license to trade in gold and have minimum paid-in capital of VND 1,000 billion.

• Commercial banks aiming to produce gold bars must maintain extremely high capital bases — at least VND 50,000 billion — and satisfy stringent internal governance requirements.

• Applicants must design and maintain processes for production oversight, quality assurance, traceability from input to output, declare product specifications, and submit information periodically to the SBV.

• Day-to-day gold transactions valued at VND 20 million or more between individuals and enterprises must be settled via bank accounts. This aims to enhance transaction transparency and traceability.

Expanded regulatory scope

Whereas Decree 24/2012 focused on gold trading, jewelry, and retail gold transactions, Decree 232 broadens the scope to include gold bar production explicitly. It also clarifies licensing conditions for importing and exporting gold raw materials for use in gold bar manufacturing.

Market Reactions & Emerging Trends Post-Enforcement

Domestic gold price volatility

On the morning of October 10, leading gold bar brands such as SJC and gold jewelry quotes registered downward adjustments following global price trends. SJC gold bars were quoted lower by approximately VND 600,000 per tael compared to prior days.

The removal of monopoly raised expectations that domestic gold prices might realign more closely with international benchmarks, especially once new licensed producers begin supplying

Enterprises preparing competition intensifies

Leading up to the effective date, several banks and major gold companies announced plans to ready licensing dossiers, upgrade capabilities, and gear up for operations as licensed producers. For instance, ACB revealed intentions to issue ACB-branded or SJC-branded gold bars once approval is granted.

Techcombank likewise stated it has been preparing infrastructure vaults, weighing equipment, staff, and import & manufacturing workflows to launch production swiftly upon licensing.

However, analysts caution that not all banks or companies will qualify due to capital and governance demands. Only a limited number may initially receive licenses.

Expectations for gold jewelry exports

Beyond serving domestic demand, the liberalization of gold raw material imports and production opens doors for the gold jewelry and handicrafts export sector. Qualified manufacturers could leverage Vietnam’s low-cost labor and existing infrastructure to produce higher-value goods for international markets.

Some experts project a possible allocation of imported gold materials: 50% for domestic gold bar production and 50% for jewelry exports — assuming licensing and quotas are allocated efficiently.

Impact on Stakeholders

Consumers & retail market

The entry of multiple gold bar brands offers greater choice to consumers — brand, design, after-sales service, and competitive pricing. The bid-ask spread may narrow, and transaction costs could fall.
In the transitional period, though, price volatility may emerge from supply-demand adjustments, conversion costs, and speculative expectations.

Commercial banks & production enterprises

These players stand to gain significantly if licensed. They may expand vertical operations: from importing gold materials to manufacturing and distribution capturing more upstream and downstream value.
But the flip side is heightened compliance pressure: quality control, transparency, data reporting, traceability, and regulatory responsibilities. Banks will need to adjust internal systems, operations, and risk controls accordingly.

State Bank & regulatory bodies

The SBV shifts from producer to regulator: licensing, supervising, allocating quotas, tracking data, controlling FX risk, and preventing illicit flows. (see above)
The decree tasks SBV with building processes, processing applications, monitoring licensees, adjusting quotas across time all of which demand strong institutional capacity and IT infrastructure.

Prominent opportunities

• Greater competition & transparency: New gold bar brands promote vibrancy, decrease monopolistic power, and enhance consumer welfare.

• Narrowing domestic–international price gaps: Expanded supply will likely bring domestic prices closer to world benchmarks.

• Value-added manufacturing & exports: Firms that can differentiate via design or craftsmanship may capture export markets.

• Financial instruments tied to gold: With a robust regime, gold-backed products like futures, contracts, or gold accounts may flourish.

Risks to watch

• Weak oversight risk: If licensing is too lax or supervision is weak, fraud, money laundering, and FX imbalances may arise.

• Oversupply vs. weak demand: Many entrants might import gold materials excessively without matching end demand — leading to inventory overhang.

• High entry barriers for small players: Smaller enterprises may fail to meet capital or governance thresholds to enter effectively.

Strategic advice

For long-term investors

• Monitor which enterprises receive licenses and assess their competitive positioning.

• Use early price fluctuations to accumulate selectively — but diversify and don’t bet on a single brand.

• Track quota allocations, supply dynamics, and divergence between domestic and international prices to time entries.

For short-term traders

• Capitalize on increased liquidity and volatility to trade intraday or swing.

• Implement tight stop-loss rules and avoid excessive leverage in this uncertain phase.

• Stay alert to licensing announcements and regulatory updates — each new license may trigger moves up or down.

The abolition of the state monopoly on gold bar production from October 10, 2025 marks a historic turning point in Vietnam’s gold market. It ushers in a new era — one of increased players, greater competition, and enhanced transparency with potential to expand value across the supply chain, from raw material importation through to export manufacturing.

Yet transforming opportunity into sustainable gains demands preparation: robust regulatory frameworks, competent institutions, disciplined enterprises, and strategic investors. In a phase marked by supply–demand shifts and regulatory signals, success will favor those who understand trends clearly, maintain discipline, and time their moves wisely.