Gold prices rose in early-week trading after the United States and Israel carried out large-scale strikes on Iran. The move sharply escalated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and increased uncertainty for the global economy.

During the session, spot gold was up nearly 2% at one point, climbing to around $5,393 per ounce, the highest level in more than a month.

The tit-for-tat retaliation has pushed the region into a higher-risk environment, with instability spilling over into broader financial markets.

Unlike several previous flare-ups, this round of conflict suggests both sides have strong incentives to keep tensions elevated. That raises the likelihood of a prolonged period of volatility, rather than a short-lived shock limited to a few trading sessions. In such a backdrop, gold’s supportive momentum is viewed as relatively constructive.

Bullion a traditional safe-haven asset has repeatedly set fresh record highs this year, reflecting growing demand for risk hedging as political and economic uncertainty continues to intensify worldwide.

Technical Analysis: The Uptrend Remains Intact

From a technical standpoint, gold continues to maintain a clear short-term uptrend after breaking above the key resistance zone at $5,090–$5,120 per ounce. This area is a crucial technical level that had acted as a market pivot for more than a month. The fact that price has not only broken through but also held firmly above this zone suggests buying pressure remains dominant and reinforces the continuation of the medium-term uptrend.

Against the backdrop of current geopolitical uncertainty, it is also worth noting that the scenario of gold extending a strong rally through 2026 has been discussed in previous analyses. At this stage, there are no technical signals that invalidate that scenario, so dismissing upside possibilities too early would be premature.

Under this scenario, gold may be entering a new bullish cycle. A return to the all-time-high region around $5,600/oz would likely be only a matter of time if the current trend structure remains intact. Further out, the $6,000/oz target is still considered achievable this year, provided price continues to form extended wave impulses consistent with a strong uptrend.

Conclusion

Gold is currently supported by both macro fundamentals and technical signals. Geopolitical tensions are acting as a catalyst for safe-haven flows, while the technical structure indicates the uptrend remains firmly in place.

With oil prices continuing to hold an upward bias as projected in earlier forecasts the spillover effects on inflation and global growth could become more visible in the period ahead. This further reinforces gold’s role as a risk-hedging asset. As a result, the bullish trend remains the base-case scenario as long as key technical support zones are not decisively broken.

Ebila AI and I will continue to closely monitor market developments, combining both fundamental and technical factors to help investors maintain a comprehensive view and make more effective decisions.

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