Gold prices traded almost flat as investors temporarily stayed on the sidelines, waiting for clearer signals from the stalled peace negotiations between the United States and Iran. Spot gold held around $4,709.50 per ounce at 05:53 GMT, after falling 2.5% last week, ending a four-week winning streak.

The current market movement clearly reflects a cautious sentiment: there is not yet enough confirmation for a new trend to form, while the key market drivers remain highly uncertain.

Fundamental Factors: Wait-and-See Sentiment Dominates

The biggest focus for the market right now remains the progress of U.S.–Iran relations. On one hand, the U.S. dollar weakened slightly after reports that Iran had submitted a new proposal through mediators in Pakistan regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which provided some support for gold prices.

However, mixed signals continue to emerge. U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran could initiate negotiations if it wanted to end the conflict, but the cancellation of a planned visit by U.S. envoys to Pakistan weakened expectations for any clear breakthrough in the short term.

At the same time, the market is also turning its attention to the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision. Any signal related to whether the Fed will maintain or adjust monetary policy amid inflationary pressure from energy prices could become a new catalyst for gold.

Technical Analysis: The “Correction Within a Correction” Phase Continues

From a technical perspective, gold remains in a “correction within a correction” phase, a condition characterized by alternating upward and downward moves, with the trading range gradually narrowing.

From a wave-structure perspective, gold is still moving within the upward leg from white A to white B, with an internal a-b-c structure. At the same time, it has entered a corrective move from wave a back toward white b. On a smaller time frame, this correction continues to break down into a yellow a-b-c structure, where the price is currently rebounding from yellow a toward yellow b, extending the sideways movement within a narrow range.

In addition, the possibility of a continuation triangle pattern, labeled as abcde, should also be taken into consideration. If this scenario plays out, the area around $4,638/oz will act as an important short-term support zone, limiting the risk of a deeper decline.

Conclusion

The current phase is more about accumulation than trend formation. As the market has not yet moved out of this “noisy” condition, expecting large price swings may not be appropriate at this stage.

In the short term, the priority remains to observe price reactions around key boundary zones and wait for clearer confirmation from both the wave structure and macroeconomic factors. Once the correction phase ends, the market will be more likely to reveal its true direction and create opportunities with higher probability.

Ebila AI continuously monitors market developments, combining both fundamental and technical factors to help investors gain a more comprehensive view and make more effective decisions.

If you find Ebila AI’s analysis useful, share this article so more investors can gain a clearer and more accurate perspective on the market.