Gold – the world’s most traditional safe-haven asset has just reached an unprecedented milestone, breaking through the $3,500 per ounce threshold on the global market. This historic surge is not only reshaping international financial dynamics but also exerting a strong influence on investor sentiment and market behavior in Vietnam. The development raises important questions: What factors are fueling gold’s rally? How should investors interpret this momentum, and what strategies are appropriate in the current context?

Vietnam’s gold market: Record highs

During the week of August 25–31, SJC gold bars climbed sharply, closing at VND 129.1 – 130.6 million per tael, with each side of the trade rising by about VND 1.3 million. This marks the highest price ever recorded for SJC gold.

At the same time, gold rings also hit new highs, trading at VND 122.5 – 123.3 million per tael, up VND 1.5 million (buying) and VND 1.7 million (selling). Over the week, SJC gold gained VND 3.5 million (buying) and VND 4 million (selling), while gold rings increased by VND 3.7 million per tael across both sides.

These figures highlight two concurrent dynamics: (1) rising domestic demand for gold as a hedge against volatility, and (2) strong spillover effects from the global market rally. However, the persistent gap between domestic and international prices reflects structural imbalances in supply-demand and regulatory frameworks. Investors should therefore remain cautious about potential risks of buying at elevated premiums.

Global gold surpasses $3,500/oz: A historic breakthrough

On the international market, gold recently traded at $3,525 per ounce, decisively breaking the psychological barrier of $3,500 a resistance level long considered unreachable. Converted into Vietnamese dong using current exchange rates (excluding taxes and fees), this equates to roughly VND 112 million per tael.

What makes this milestone particularly noteworthy is that the rally is not a short-lived speculative spike but rather supported by underlying macroeconomic and monetary factors: U.S. Federal Reserve policy shifts, dollar weakness, growing central bank purchases, and concerns over U.S. economic slowdown. This underscores gold’s enduring status as the “ultimate safe-haven asset” in an uncertain financial environment.

Key drivers of the rally

Fed policy and interest rate cut expectations

According to CME’s FedWatch tool, markets currently price in a 90% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting on September 17. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, while simultaneously diminishing the attractiveness of bonds.

Dollar weakness

The U.S. Dollar Index has dropped to its lowest level in over a month. As the greenback weakens, gold priced in dollars becomes cheaper for holders of other currencies, thereby stimulating demand and pushing prices higher.

Growing demand from investors and central banks

Central banks worldwide are accelerating gold purchases to diversify reserves and reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar. Simultaneously, retail and institutional investors are boosting gold holdings to shield themselves from geopolitical uncertainty and financial market risks.

Implications for Vietnam’s market and investors

The global gold rally above $3,500 per ounce carries several implications for Vietnam:

1. Investor sentiment boost: Gold is increasingly viewed as a safe store of value amid uncertainty.

2. Widening price gap: Domestic gold prices typically trade at a premium to international benchmarks due to supply-demand dynamics and regulatory controls, raising risks of speculation.

3. Capital allocation shifts: Rising gold demand may divert funds away from equities, real estate, or bank deposits.

4. Policy considerations: If gold becomes excessively speculative, regulators may intervene to stabilize the market and prevent asset bubbles.

Gold’s breakthrough above $3,500/oz marks a historic milestone that reflects deeper structural changes in the global economy and financial system. With Fed policy likely shifting toward rate cuts, the dollar weakening, and geopolitical risks intensifying, gold reaffirms its role as the king of safe-haven assets. Yet opportunity comes with risk: investors must remain vigilant, closely tracking monetary policy developments and macroeconomic signals, while resisting herd-driven impulses.