Gold prices climbed 2% on Tuesday as the U.S. dollar weakened, while expectations of renewed talks between the United States and Iran also helped support prices by easing inflation concerns.

The upward momentum continued into Wednesday, with spot gold briefly reaching $4,870 per ounce, surpassing last week’s peak.

Outlook for the resumption of U.S.-Iran talks

U.S. President Donald Trump said that negotiations aimed at ending the conflict with Iran could resume in Pakistan within the next few days, following the collapse of the previous round of talks and the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

According to analysts, developments in these negotiations will play a key role in shaping the short-term direction of the gold market. If positive signals emerge, gold prices could continue extending their gains.

In addition, a weaker U.S. dollar and cooling oil prices are creating a more favorable environment for gold, especially after the market had previously leaned toward holding cash and worrying about energy supply amid escalating conflict.

Signals from economic data

Recently released data showed that U.S. producer prices rose less than expected in March, mainly due to stable service costs. However, energy prices increased sharply because of the conflict, continuing to keep inflationary pressure in place.

At present, the market is pricing in only about a 33% probability of interest rate cuts this year, down significantly from expectations before the war began.

Even so, analysts believe that as long as the market is not seriously pricing in the possibility of the Federal Reserve returning to a rate-hiking cycle, gold prices are unlikely to fall much further.

Technical analysis: The uptrend is becoming increasingly clear

From a technical perspective, after breaking above the descending trendline, gold prices made a very clean retest before accelerating higher again, exactly in line with the scenario outlined in previous analyses.

In terms of wave structure, gold is currently moving in an upward leg from white A to white B, with an internal a-b-c formation. At the moment, price is advancing from b to c, suggesting that bullish momentum remains intact.

The target of this upward move could bring gold back toward the $5,000/oz area in the near term, provided that market inflows continue to support the rally.

At the same time, the possibility that the long-term uptrend has resumed cannot be ruled out. However, this scenario will require more time and data for clearer confirmation.

What both scenarios have in common is this: gold is being well supported in the short term.

Conclusion

Current macro factors, ranging from a weaker U.S. dollar and expectations for renewed negotiations to monetary policy developments, are creating a favorable backdrop for gold in the short term.

From a technical perspective, the price structure continues to support a bullish outlook. Therefore, the preferred strategy remains to follow the primary trend and look for buying opportunities during pullbacks.

However, the market is still heavily dependent on geopolitical developments, so flexibility and disciplined risk management remain essential in case of unexpected volatility.

Ebila AI continues to closely monitor market developments, combining both fundamental and technical analysis to help investors gain a more comprehensive view and make more effective decisions.

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