Analysts say multiple factors are simultaneously driving price volatility from Trump’s unpredictability to declining confidence in economic systems.

Gold and silver have just gone through an unusually intense period of turbulence: a prolonged, near-vertical surge followed by a sharp sell-off within only a few sessions. After the steep drop on Friday and Monday, the market recorded a notable rebound on Tuesday and Wednesday, raising a key question: are precious metals returning to an uptrend, or is this merely a technical bounce within a broader correction?

Right now, what matters most is not how far prices have rebounded, but the direction in which the market structure is evolving after the recent shock.

Why did gold and silver surge so strongly over the past year?

Precious metals have long been favored by investors for their ability to preserve value.

Historically, they tend to attract capital during periods of economic uncertainty and geopolitical tension.

The return of Donald Trump a leader known for his unpredictability in the White House has been one of the factors fueling market volatility over the past year.

From tariff policies and pressure on the Federal Reserve’s independence, to statements threatening to take control of Denmark’s autonomous territory of Greenland, Trump has repeatedly broken with traditional norms, increasing unease across financial markets.

His “non-conventional” governing style has also contributed to a weaker U.S. dollar, prompting investors to move into “safe-haven” assets to protect value.

From the time Trump took office last year through the end of January 2026, gold nearly doubled, while silver rose nearly fourfold.

Why did gold and silver crash?

The overheated rally abruptly ended on Friday, when gold and silver fell by around 10% and 28%, respectively.

The decline extended into Monday, with gold closing down roughly 4.5% and silver down about 6.5%.

By Tuesday and Wednesday, precious metals recovered part of the losses, with gold up around 8.5% and silver up about 10% as of 06:00 GMT.

Analysts have not reached a consensus on what caused the sell-off.

Some argue that Trump himself brought prices back down much like he had helped push them higher.

On Friday, Trump announced he would nominate Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, a choice seen as relatively “traditional” compared with other names reportedly under consideration.

Also on Friday, Trump said he hoped to reach a deal with Iran, after weeks of threatening military action against the Middle Eastern country.

However, many other analysts are skeptical of that explanation and believe the true cause was simply that prices had been pushed too far, too fast.

A more plausible view is that the collapse occurred because precious metals had risen in a “parabolic” fashion in the prior week. Once profit-taking began, it quickly spread.

What happens next for gold and silver from a technical-analysis perspective?

From a technical and wave-structure viewpoint, the recent sharp decline has completely invalidated the prior short-term bullish scenarios. Instead, the market is entering a phase where the entire medium-term structure needs to be reassessed.

A key feature of the current phase is a very wide trading range, with alternating rebounds and sell-offs reflecting either distribution or re-accumulation after a powerful rally. In this environment, forecasting a one-way trend is not appropriate; instead, the market should be approached through clearly defined, conditional scenarios.

Gold

As long as gold has not violated the wave condition at $4,381/oz, the two scenarios discussed in the previous analysis remain valid. Investors can view the details here.

A common feature of both scenarios is that, at this stage, the market typically develops into one of two prevalent wave structures: ABC or ABCDE. Accordingly, after Wave A formed around the $4,400/oz area, gold moved into a corrective rebound from A to B, in line with typical market behavior. As previously noted, this is expected to be a phase of sideways movement within a very wide range.

Silver: The technical rebound is currently dominating.

Silver has corrected roughly 50% of the prior upside swing and has completed the structure of a bearish impulse wave, thereby confirming the formation of a medium-term Wave A. The current upswing is therefore most likely a technical corrective rebound from A to B, with a high-probability target zone around $96–$102/oz, based on Fibonacci ratios.

It is important to emphasize that this is only a potential price zone derived from statistical probability not a guaranteed outcome. Let price action tell the rest of the story.

Conclusion

The rebound in gold and silver following the sharp sell-off should not be hastily interpreted as a return to a powerful uptrend. Rather, it signals that the market is entering a phase of structural reconfiguration after a rare, overheated rally.

Until the wave structures become clearer, the most sensible approach remains to observe, wait for confirmation, and avoid imposing premature expectations on the market. In this phase, patience is the greatest edge.

For short-term traders, it is still possible to map out key support and resistance convergence zones in advance and trade based on price reaction.

Ebila AI will continue to monitor market developments closely, combining both fundamental and technical factors to help investors gain a more comprehensive view and make more effective decisions.

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(All information related to trading in financial markets provided on this website is for research and educational purposes only and does not constitute specific investment or business advice. It also does not serve as an analysis of investment opportunities or a general recommendation regarding the trading of any investment instruments.)