Gold ended the trading week with an impressive rally of more than USD 200/oz, creating the first positive signal after a prolonged and sharp corrective phase. Notably, the recovery emerged just as price reached the lower boundary of the parallel channel mentioned in previous analyses.

After forming a low at USD 4,366/oz, gold quickly rebounded to the USD 4,595/oz area. The strong reaction from this support zone suggests that buying pressure has begun to return to the market and may be laying the foundation for a new bullish cycle in the period ahead.

Technical Analysis: An Uptrend Is Gradually Taking Shape

Current price action shows that buyers have started to step back in more clearly after the previous strong sell-off. At the same time, this development reinforces the view that gold remains within a larger corrective phase in the form of a “wide-range sideways structure,” a process that may continue for several months before the next major trend is fully established.

From a wave-structure perspective, gold is currently moving within the upward leg from white wave A to white wave B, with an internal yellow A-B-C structure. It is highly possible that yellow wave B was completed around the USD 4,366/oz area, and the market is now beginning to enter yellow wave C.

If this scenario plays out, gold may shift into the structure of the Million-Dollar Model No. 1, consisting of a five-wave sequence: t1-l1-t2-l2-t3. At present, wave t1 may have been completed around the USD 4,595/oz area. In the short term, a corrective move from t1 down to l1 is expected to emerge, helping absorb short-term supply and slow down the pace of the price increase.

Once l1 is completed, the market may enter wave t2, a phase that typically brings clearer upward momentum and attracts stronger participation from market liquidity.

Conclusion

The rebound from the USD 4,366/oz area is providing the first positive signal for a medium-term bullish scenario. Although more time is still needed to confirm the formation of a complete bullish cycle, the current structure is increasingly leaning toward the possibility that gold has formed a short-term bottom.

In the near term, corrective moves may still appear and create a certain degree of volatility. However, as long as the USD 4,366/oz low remains intact, the dominant outlook continues to support the possibility that gold may extend its recovery and move toward higher targets in the period ahead.

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