Gold prices unexpectedly reversed lower during Thursday’s session, despite a strong rally earlier in the day, as expectations for a U.S.–Iran peace agreement were partly weakened by mixed signals from Tehran.

This movement shows that market sentiment remains highly sensitive to geopolitical developments. Even a slight doubt about the possibility of reaching an agreement can immediately trigger a reaction in smart money flows toward gold. However, from a technical perspective, the current corrective move is relatively reasonable and was entirely foreseeable.

Technical Analysis: A Necessary Correction After t1

From a wave-structure perspective, gold is currently moving within the upward leg from white b to white c, with an internal five-wave structure consisting of yellow t1 – l1 – t2 – l2 – t3.

After wave t1 was completed around the 4,765 USD/oz area, a short-term corrective move is a natural part of the wave structure. In the near term, gold is likely to enter a corrective phase from t1 toward l1 before the t2 upward wave returns and continues to drive the broader uptrend.

This stage is typically characterized by alternating pullbacks and price fluctuations. However, as long as the bullish structure remains intact, the main trend still leans toward the upside.

If the l1 correction is completed as expected, gold may continue into the t2 upward wave and maintain its path toward white B. The target for this upward move remains around the 5,000 USD/oz area.

In this context, the current short-term corrections can be viewed as a period of market re-accumulation before the next upward wave forms.

Conclusion

Although gold prices are currently narrowing their short-term gains, the existing technical structure has not yet shown signs of a trend reversal. Instead, the market is more likely entering a necessary corrective phase before continuing its upward journey toward a higher target area.

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