Gold prices were mostly flat on Tuesday after a disappointing U.S. retail sales report. The weaker-than-expected data strengthened traders’ expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will move forward with a rate cut at its December meeting.

Gold Supported by Dovish Signals from the Fed
In recent sessions, the market has significantly increased its expectations for Fed easing, especially after several Fed officials publicly expressed support for cutting rates next month.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the December 9–10 meeting has risen to 77.2%, up sharply from 41.8% just a week earlier.

The Wall Street Journal also reported that allies of Fed Chair Jerome Powell have prepared arguments to help him push for a December rate cut.

However, the decision could be controversial, as divisions within the Fed are deepening — especially with the central bank lacking key economic data due to the prolonged U.S. government shutdown. This has left the Fed in a near “information blackout” during a critical policy-setting period at year-end.

Market Awaits Key U.S. Economic Data
Gold prices are currently in a holding pattern as traders look ahead to a series of important U.S. economic reports expected over the next few days.

Because of last month’s extended government shutdown, key releases including inflation data and the October jobs report will likely be unavailable.

The absence of these indicators has been one of the reasons markets believed the Fed might keep rates unchanged in December, as policymakers are forced to make decisions without fresh data.

Technical Analysis: Gold Approaches a Critical Zone
Following Monday’s strong rally, gold has now reached an important technical zone that warrants close attention.

Wave Structure Overview

Gold remains in a broader downtrend from white wave (b) toward white wave (c).
The smaller structure consists of a three-wave corrective pattern: white a – b – c.
White wave a has already formed at $3,998/oz.

The market is now entering a confluence resistance zone formed by the trendline and several key technical levels. We need to wait for additional confirmation to determine whether white wave b is taking shape in this region.

If white wave b is confirmed, it will activate a selling opportunity aligned with the downward structure from white wave (b) to white wave (c), opening the way for a deeper decline in the coming period.

Conclusion

• Gold is trading sideways as the market awaits a series of important U.S. economic data releases.

• Expectations for a December Fed rate cut have risen sharply thanks to increasingly dovish signals.

• The lack of October data has created substantial challenges for the Fed’s decision-making process.

• From a technical perspective, gold is approaching a key resistance area, and confirmation of white wave b is needed before initiating sell positions in line with the primary trend.

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