On the morning of September 4, 2025, Vietnam’s domestic gold market once again shocked investors as SJC bullion surged to VND 133.9 million per tael, marking the highest level in history. This milestone has quickly drawn the attention of financial experts, investors, and households who traditionally view gold as a safe-haven asset.

Yet the critical questions remain: why has gold climbed so sharply, and does this represent a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for profit or a speculative trap fraught with risk?

A Historic Surge in Domestic Gold Prices

According to official quotations, SJC gold bullion on September 4 was listed at VND 132.4 million (buying) – VND 133.9 million (selling). This represents an increase of VND 500,000 in just one trading session, with the bid-ask spread widening to VND 1.5 million per tael.

The upward momentum was not limited to bullion. Gold jewelry and rings also recorded new highs, quoted in the range of VND 126.2 – 128.7 million per tael, with some retailers selling at up to VND 129 million. This broad-based rally highlights the pervasive upward pressure across all segments of the domestic gold market.

Notably, immediately after the National Day holiday, many gold shops in Hanoi reported supply shortages, unable to meet surging demand. Crowds of buyers flocked to purchase gold in fear of missing out, exemplifying the classic herd behavior often observed in financial markets.

Key Drivers Behind the Record-Breaking Rally

Global Market Momentum

On the international stage, gold surged beyond USD 3,574 per ounce, up more than USD 40 in a single day. As Vietnam’s domestic prices are closely tied to global movements, this upward momentum immediately translated into higher local prices.

In addition, the persistent gap between domestic and international gold prices reflects underlying supply constraints within Vietnam, amplifying the rally in local markets.

Escalating USD Exchange Rates

Parallel to gold’s rise, the Vietnamese dong weakened against the U.S. dollar. The central reference rate was announced at VND 25,246 per USD, up 6 dong. Commercial banks traded near the upper limit, at VND 26,138 – 26,508 per USD, while the free market quoted as high as VND 26,870 per USD.

The strengthening dollar increases import costs and exerts inflationary pressure. In such conditions, gold becomes more attractive as a hedge against currency depreciation.

Expectations of Fed Rate Cuts

A crucial factor driving the global rally stems from U.S. monetary policy. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in a 92% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September 2025.

Lower interest rates reduce the appeal of bank deposits and other yield-bearing assets, shifting capital toward non-yielding but safe assets such as gold. This expectation has fueled a worldwide wave of gold buying, inevitably spilling over into Vietnam.

Geopolitical and Economic Uncertainty

Beyond monetary dynamics, global political risks also play a role. Statements from the U.S. President regarding Fed independence and trade policy have heightened uncertainty. Historically, in periods of instability, gold serves as the ultimate safe-haven asset.

In Vietnam, these external shocks compound domestic investor sentiment, where gold has long been considered a traditional safeguard against volatility.

Opportunities and Risks – What Should Investors Expect?

Potential Upside

Given the confluence of international and domestic factors, analysts suggest that gold still has room to rise further. If the Fed delivers the anticipated rate cuts and the USD remains elevated, domestic prices could break through VND 135 million per tael. For investors holding gold prior to this rally, the current environment represents a lucrative window for profit-taking.

Downside Risks

However, investors must recognize that today’s record prices are not solely driven by fundamentals but also by speculative sentiment. The rush to buy gold post-holiday underscores short-term speculative activity, which could trigger sharp corrections once demand subsides or supply normalizes.

Should the Fed reduce rates less aggressively than expected, or if geopolitical dynamics stabilize unexpectedly, gold prices could retreat rapidly. Those entering the market at peak levels risk substantial losses.

Strategic Perspectives for Investors

Short-Term Trading – Extreme Caution Required

For those attempting to “ride the wave,” it is critical to set clear profit-taking and stop-loss levels. Buying gold at all-time highs carries significant downside risk if market sentiment shifts.

Long-Term Holding – Gold Remains a Safe Haven

From a medium- to long-term perspective, gold remains a resilient store of value, particularly amid persistent global inflationary pressures and geopolitical uncertainties. However, exposure should be balanced, not concentrated solely in gold.

Diversification Is Key

A well-structured investment portfolio cannot rely exclusively on gold. Combining gold with equities, bonds, and real estate allows investors to balance capital preservation with potential growth.

The “Gold Rush” and Lessons Learned

The historic milestone of SJC bullion reaching VND 133.9 million per tael reflects both global macroeconomic forces and domestic behavioral dynamics. While gold remains an attractive safe-haven asset, impulsive investment driven by herd psychology can quickly transform opportunity into risk.

The key takeaway is clear: discipline, strategic diversification, and risk management are paramount. Rather than blindly following market euphoria, investors should carefully observe macroeconomic developments, especially the Fed’s monetary policy decisions, before committing capital.

In an era of heightened uncertainty, a diversified, long-term investment strategy is the most reliable safeguard against the volatility of “gold fever.”

(Source: DanTri)