Market Background

Gold prices jumped by more than 2% at the start of the week as market sentiment improved following reports that U.S. and Iranian officials had reached preliminary agreements aimed at easing conflict tensions. This development sent oil prices sharply lower, helping to reduce inflationary pressure and weaken expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve would continue to maintain high interest rates. As of 03:12 GMT, spot gold rose 2.5% to USD 4,322.87 per ounce, its highest level since June 9, while also marking its third consecutive session of gains.

Technical Analysis: Is an Uptrend Forming?

After correcting toward the USD 4,000 per ounce area, gold prices have rebounded strongly by more than USD 300 per ounce. This is an early signal that capital flow may be returning to the precious metal.

From a wave structure perspective, gold prices are still moving within the scenario of a wave from white A to white B, which belongs to the yellow A-B-C Flat correction pattern. After the first upward wave (yellow t1) is completed, the market is likely to enter the yellow l1 corrective phase. This can be seen as a potential opportunity area for buyers to enter the market, with the expectation of catching the next upward wave toward the t2 target. Invalidation point: The bullish scenario will be invalidated if the price breaks below the USD 4,023 per ounce level.

Conclusion

The strong recovery from the short-term low, combined with the gap-up move at the start of the week, is strengthening the possibility that the uptrend may be returning. However, these are still only early warning signs and have not yet provided full confirmation. Therefore, investors should continue to monitor price reactions at key resistance zones, as well as developments in the Fed’s monetary policy, to confirm whether the bullish momentum can be sustained in the coming period.

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