Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday, supported by expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue its monetary easing policy and by lingering trade uncertainties — even as risk appetite improved with the U.S. government set to end its longest shutdown in history.

This week, gold has rebounded strongly above the $4,100/oz mark, almost ignoring the pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar — a sign that underlying demand remains solid.

Gold demand stays strong despite U.S. government reopening

Investors continue to hold their gold positions despite progress on a budget bill that would end the 41-day U.S. government shutdown.
The bill was passed by the Senate on Monday evening and is expected to be approved by the House later this week, with strong support signals from the Republican majority.

Economic and trade uncertainties remain key drivers

According to analysts at ANZ, the recent rebound in gold is largely driven by safe-haven demand, amid growing concerns over U.S. tariff policies and the risk of a slowdown in global growth.

The U.S. Supreme Court recently questioned the Trump administration’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs — a move that could be deemed unconstitutional.
President Trump warned that if the court strikes down the tariffs, the U.S. government could lose more than $2 trillion in refund liabilities for previously collected duties.
This raised fears of prolonged political and economic instability, prompting investors to turn to gold as a safe haven.

Market expects continued Fed easing

Meanwhile, markets are currently pricing in a 67% probability that the Fed will cut interest rates again in December, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
The ongoing rate-cut expectations continue to bolster gold’s outlook — a non-yielding asset that tends to thrive in a low-interest-rate environment.

Technical analysis: Uptrend still intact

Gold is now challenging the $4,135 – $4,150/oz resistance zone, showing no signs of ending its bullish trend.
In the short term, gold appears to be retesting the upper boundary of the previously broken white ascending channel, forming a narrow consolidation range between $4,100 and $4,140 before potentially extending toward the next target zone of $4,185 – $4,200/oz.

If a stronger bullish scenario unfolds, we lean toward the view that gold has completed the white L2 wave at $3,886 and is now entering a medium-term uptrend cycle. In this case, a new high around the $4,700/oz zone is entirely possible.

Conclusion

Gold’s rally continues to be supported by expectations of a Fed rate cut, trade uncertainties, and persistent safe-haven demand.
The current phase favors short- and medium-term trading strategies aligned with the ongoing bullish trend.

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