Market Context

Spot gold and silver prices moved higher after the North American cash market closed on Wednesday. Precious metals entered the third quarter with a rebound, although a stronger U.S. dollar and elevated Treasury yields continued to keep the market in a defensive position ahead of the June jobs report.

At the time of writing, spot gold was trading around $4,036.90 per ounce, up 0.75%. Meanwhile, spot silver was trading near $59.07 per ounce, up 1.03% on the session.

Gold Holds Above $4,000, While Silver Outperforms

Gold’s New York spot range was between $3,959.40 and $4,115.90 per ounce. The fact that gold continued to hold above the $4,000 per ounce area suggests that buying interest is still appearing after repeated support tests.

Silver performed better than gold, with its New York spot range between $57.05 and $61.12 per ounce. During the session, silver briefly moved above the $60 per ounce level before easing slightly toward the end of trading.

NFP Is the Market’s Main Focus

The key focus is now the U.S. non-farm payrolls report for June, scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday, just ahead of the July 4 holiday.

Private-sector employment increased by 98,000 in June, below forecasts and down from 122,000 in May. Meanwhile, broader market expectations suggest the official jobs report will show around 110,000 jobs added, lower than the 172,000 recorded in the previous month.

This setup leaves gold and silver vulnerable to a two-way reaction from the jobs report. A stronger-than-expected reading could support the U.S. dollar, Treasury yields, and expectations that the Fed may maintain a tighter policy stance, putting pressure on precious metals.

Conversely, a weaker-than-expected report could ease pressure from the dollar and yields, creating room for gold and silver to extend their rebound.

Hormuz Risks Ease, but Have Not Disappeared

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz currently points to a faster-than-expected recovery in oil flows, but unresolved security risks remain.

Oil shipping and production in the Middle East resumed faster than analysts had expected after the U.S.-Iran cooperation framework. Brent crude also moved back closer to prewar levels as tankers continued to pass through the strait.

However, the recovery is not yet complete. Recent oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have averaged only around 7 million barrels per day, far below the prewar level of 20 million barrels per day. This shows that the market remains vulnerable to any renewed disruption or breakdown in negotiations.

For now, easing energy risks are putting downward pressure on oil prices, supporting risk assets, and providing only limited support for gold, as the immediate energy-driven inflation shock has faded.

Outside Markets

In energy markets, WTI crude traded around $68.58 per barrel, while Brent crude was near $71.57 per barrel.

The Dollar Index edged higher to around 101.42, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remained near the 4.5% area. These two factors continue to act as key barriers to a stronger short-term rally in gold and silver.

Gold Technical Analysis

For spot gold, bulls need to push price back above the $4,044 - $4,100 per ounce resistance zone to confirm a clearer recovery. If gold breaks sustainably above this area, the next targets could be $4,200 and $4,370 per ounce.

On the downside, the nearest support level to watch is $3,959 per ounce. If gold breaks below this area, selling pressure could extend toward $3,900, followed by $3,886 per ounce.

Silver Technical Analysis

For spot silver, bulls need to drive price back above the $60.41 - $61.54 per ounce zone. If silver breaks above this area, the next upside targets could be $64.25 and then $69.85 per ounce.

On the downside, the key support level stands at $57.13 per ounce. If this level is broken, silver could continue to correct toward $56.50, followed by $55.00 per ounce.

Conclusion

Gold and silver are recovering as they enter the third quarter, but the rebound is not yet fully secure. A stronger U.S. dollar, elevated Treasury yields, and the market’s focus on the upcoming NFP report continue to limit upside momentum.

In the short term, U.S. labor-market data will likely determine the next major move. A strong jobs report could put renewed pressure on precious metals, while weaker-than-expected data could help gold and silver extend their rebound.

Gold needs to break above the $4,044 - $4,100 per ounce zone to confirm stronger upside momentum, while silver needs to clear the $60.41 - $61.54 per ounce area to extend its advance.

Source: Kitco