International Gold Price Movements

The global gold market has just witnessed a new record as spot gold surged to USD3,702.98 per ounce on September 16, 2025. At the same time, December 2025 gold futures on the COMEX exchange also reached USD 3,722–3,733 per ounce, reflecting investors’ optimism about gold’s outlook. The sharp rally stemmed from expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will soon cut interest rates, coupled with a weakening U.S. dollar and falling Treasury yields, creating favorable conditions for capital to flow into safe-haven assets. Beyond monetary policy, global economic and geopolitical uncertainties also played a crucial role in pushing gold beyond unprecedented levels.

Key Drivers Behind the Gold Rally

The surge in gold prices during this period can be summarized by three main factors. First is the Fed’s monetary policy, with markets almost certain that a 0.25 percentage point rate cut will occur, and some institutions even predicting a 0.50-point cut. Second is the weakening of the U.S. dollar, which makes gold cheaper for investors holding other currencies, thereby stimulating demand. Lastly, gold continues to serve as a “safe haven” in an environment of latent inflation, global economic fragility, and persistent geopolitical tensions. When these three factors converge, gold’s momentum becomes stronger than ever.

Direct Impacts on Vietnam’s Gold Market

SJC Gold and Gold Jewelry Prices Soar

In line with the international rally, Vietnam’s market reacted strongly. By the end of September 16, SJC gold bars were adjusted to VND 130.3–132.3 million per tael (buy – sell), with buying prices rising by about VND 2.2 million and selling prices up VND 1.2 million compared to the previous day. Plain 9999 gold jewelry followed the same trend, quoted at VND 126.6–129.3 million per tael. These exceptionally high levels have raised concerns about affordability and risks for small-scale investors.

The Gap Between Domestic and Global Prices

When converted at the official exchange rate, international gold prices are equivalent to only VND 118–119 million per tael. This means domestic gold is higher by VND 14–20 million per tael. This gap has persisted for a long time, reflecting inefficiencies in supply mechanisms and market regulation. With such a large disparity, domestic buyers always face higher risks, while the market is vulnerable to speculation or smuggling activities.

Government Regulatory Actions

In response, on September 16, the Prime Minister issued Directive 165, instructing the State Bank of Vietnam to closely monitor developments in the foreign exchange and gold markets, and to be ready to intervene to stabilize prices and narrow the gap with global markets. The government also emphasized strengthening inspections and strictly punishing hoarding or price manipulation. Importantly, Decree 232, set to take effect on October 10, 2025, will officially end the monopoly on gold bars, creating a more transparent and competitive environment. In addition, plans to develop a public gold price information portal and explore the establishment of an official gold exchange are viewed as long-term measures to professionalize the market and reduce risks for citizens.

Why Gold Surged and the Risk of Corrections

The recent rally in gold results from the convergence of multiple factors, but that does not necessarily mean the uptrend will continue indefinitely. At record-high levels, profit-taking pressure is inevitable. Moreover, markets are closely watching key U.S. economic indicators such as CPI, retail sales, and employment data. If these figures come in stronger than expected, the U.S. dollar could rebound and put downward pressure on gold. Conversely, if the U.S. economy shows signs of weakness, gold may continue its upward trajectory.

Implications for Vietnamese Investors

For domestic investors, the 14–20 million VND per tael premium compared to global prices poses a clear risk. Those who buy at record-high prices could suffer losses if international prices reverse. This is why many experts argue that restructuring the market, eliminating the monopoly on gold bars, and establishing a gold exchange are essential to aligning domestic prices with global ones. A transparent and competitive market would make investing safer and protect citizens from significant disparities.

Possible Scenarios Ahead

If the Fed cuts rates as expected and the U.S. dollar continues to weaken, gold could reach or surpass USD 3,700 per ounce, pushing domestic prices even higher. On the other hand, if U.S. economic data shows resilience and strengthens the dollar, gold may correct sharply, leading to steep declines. Another possibility lies in unforeseen geopolitical or financial shocks, in which case gold would be even more attractive and could climb further. For Vietnam, regardless of the scenario, tighter government oversight and greater competition will be key to reducing price gaps and stabilizing the market.

The new record for international gold prices in September 2025 not only reflects shifting expectations about global monetary policy but also underscores gold’s growing role as a hedge against economic and geopolitical risks. In Vietnam, both SJC gold bars and jewelry surged to unprecedented levels, yet the large gap with global prices poses serious challenges for regulators and individual investors. Measures such as Directive 165 and Decree 232 are expected to pave the way for a more transparent, competitive, and sustainable gold market. In today’s environment, gold remains an attractive asset, but investors must stay rational and monitor policy developments closely to make informed decisions, rather than chasing short-term waves that may carry hidden risks.